In 2010... Nature asked specialists... to look ten years into the future, and I made this case... judging… — Peter Turchin
In 2010... Nature asked specialists... to look ten years into the future, and I made this case... judging from the pattern of US history, we were due for another sharp instability spike by the early 2020s. ...The book is my best attempt to explain this model... I make no claims of radical originality.
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I began my career... as an ecologist... studying the population dynamics of beetles, butterflies, mice, and deer. ...I embraced the turn of the field to complexity science, which mixes computer modeling with Big Data analytics to answer such questions as... why many animal populations go through boom-and-bust cycles. By the late 1990s... I began to consider how the same... approach could be brought to the study of human societies. A quarter of a century later, my colleagues... and I have built out a flourishing field... (from Clio... the... Greek mythological muse of history, and dynamics, the science of change)...
... uses the methods of data science, treating the historical record... as Big Data. It employs mathematical models to trace the intricate web of interactions...
[M]y colleagues and I... focused on cycles of political integration and disintegration, particularly on state formation and state collapse.
