# The Black Swan - Author: [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb.md) - Quotes: 20 - Book page: https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan ## Quotes > There is no effective difference between guessing a variable that is not random, but for which information is partial or deficient (...), and a random one (...). In this sense, guessing (what I don't know, but what someone else may know) and predicting (what has not taken place yet) are the same thing. p. 142 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/there-is-no-effective.md) > History is opaque. You see what comes out, not the script that produces events, [...] The generator of historical events is different from the events themselves, much as the minds of the gods cannot be read just by witnessing their deeds. p. 8 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/history-is-opaque.md) > Categorizing is necessary for humans, but it becomes pathological when the category is seen as definitive, preventing people from considering the fuzziness of boundaries, let alone revising their categories. p. 15 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/categorizing-is-necessary.md) > Consider that the turkey's experience may have, rather than no value, a negative value. It learned from observation, as we are all advised to do (hey, after all, this is what is believed to be the scientific method). Its confidence increased as the number of friendly feedings grew, and it felt increasingly safe even though the slaughter was more and more imminent. Consider that the feeling of safety reached its maximum when the risk was at the highest! p. 40 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/consider-that-the.md) > Don't cross a river if it is four feet deep on average. p. 161 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/dont-cross-a-river.md) > Globalization creates interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability. In other words it creates devastating Black Swans. We have never lived before under the threat of a global collapse. Financial Institutions have been merging into a smaller number of very large banks. Almost all banks are interrelated. So the financial ecology is swelling into gigantic, incestuous, bureaucratic banks — when one fails, they all fall. The increased concentration among banks seems to have the effect of making financial crisis less likely, but when they happen they are more global in scale and hit us very hard. We have moved from a diversified ecology of small banks, with varied lending policies, to a more homogeneous framework of firms that all resemble one another. True, we now have fewer failures, but when they occur... I shiver at the thought. p. 225 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/globalization-creates-interlocking.md) > One cannot assert authority by accepting one's own fallibility. Simply, people need to be blinded by knowledge - we are made to follow leaders who can gather people together because the advantages of being in groups trump the disadvantages of being alone. It has been more profitable for us to bind together in the wrong direction than to be alone in the right one. Those who have followed the assertive idiot rather than the introspective wise person have passed us some of their genes. This is apparent from a social pathology: psychopaths rally followers. p. 192 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/one-cannot-assert.md) > But it remains the case that you know what is wrong with a lot more confidence than you know what is right. p. 58 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/but-it-remains.md) > I disagree with the followers of Marx and those of Adam Smith: the reason free markets work is because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or "incentives" for skill. [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/i-disagree-with.md) > While in theory randomness is an intrinsic property, in practice, randomness is incomplete information. p. 198 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/while-in-theory.md) > Rank beliefs not according to their plausibility but by the harm they may cause. p. 203 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/rank-beliefs-not.md) > The same past data can confirm a theory and its exact opposite! If you survive until tomorrow, it could mean that either a) you are more likely to be immortal or b) that you are closer to death. p. 185 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/the-same-past.md) > We tend to use knowledge as therapy. p. 69 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/we-tend-to-use.md) > The casino is the only human venture I know where the probabilities are known, Gaussian (i.e., bell-curve), and almost computable. p. 127 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/the-casino-is-the.md) > If you want to get an idea of a friend's temperament, ethics, and personal elegance, you need to look at him under the tests of severe circumstances, not under the regular rosy glow of daily life. Can you assess the danger a criminal poses by examining only what he does on an ordinary day? Can we understand health without considering wild diseases and epidemics? Indeed the normal is often irrelevant. [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/if-you-want.md) > Forecasting by bureaucrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making. p. 162 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/forecasting-by-bureaucrats.md) > This makes living in big cities invaluable because you increase the odds of serendipitous encounters — you gain exposure to the envelope of serendipity. p. 209 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/this-makes-living.md) > It is remarkable how fast and how effectively you can construct a nationality with a flag, a few speeches, and a national anthem; to this day I avoid the label "Lebanese," preferring the less restrictive "Levantine" designation. p. 5 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/it-is-remarkable.md) > Probability is a liberal art; it is a child of skepticism, not a tool for people with calculators on their belts to satisfy their desire to produce fancy calculations and certainties. p. 128 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/probability-is-a-liberal.md) > Cumulative errors depend largely on the big surprises, the big opportunities. Not only do economic, financial, and political predictors miss them, but they are quite ashamed to say anything outlandish to their clients — and yet events, it turns out, are almost always outlandish. p. 149 — [Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-black-swan/cumulative-errors-depend.md)