# Quote — Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled by Randomness

> The major problem with inference... is that those whose profession it is to derive conclusions from data often fall into the trap faster and more confidently... The more data we have, the more likely we are to drown in it. For common wisdom... is to base... decision making on the following principle: It is very unlikely for someone to perform... well in a consistent fashion without doing something right. ...[I]f someone performed better... in the past then there is a great[er] chance of performing better than the crowd in the future... But... [a] small knowledge of probability can lead to worse results than no knowledge at all.

- Author: [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb.md)
- Book: [Fooled by Randomness](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/fooled-by-randomness.md)
- Source: [Wikiquote](https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb#Fooled_by_Randomness_(2001)) ([CC BY-SA 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/))
- Quote page: https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/fooled-by-randomness/the-major-problem

## More from this book

> The information that a person derived some profit in the past... by itself, is neither meaningful nor relevant. We need to know the size of the population from which he came. If the initial population is 10,000 managers, I would ignore the results.

[Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/fooled-by-randomness/the-information-that.md)

> [B]ecoming more rational, or not feeling the emotions of social slights, is not part of the human race... not with our current biology. There is no solace to be found from reasoning...

[Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/fooled-by-randomness/b-ecoming-more-rational.md)

> A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact, but in the light of the information until that point.

[Quote page](https://www.leafyquotes.com/nassim-nicholas-taleb/fooled-by-randomness/a-mistake-is-not.md)