Keyu Jin

[I]nnovation has... become... one of the highest forms of... glory. And it is [China's] only... hope of becoming the foremost economic power of the twenty-first century.

[Y]oung people are big spenders, prodigious borrowers... the potential to unleash trillions... into the global economy... [t]hey are... more open-minded and socially conscious... However, ...less suited to Western-style democracy ...[D]eeply layered in the national psyche ...steeped in their ...culture ...traditions, and rooted in their ...communities ...ushering in an era of economic... without political liberalization...

[Some] Latin American countries... and Asian economies... experienced rapid growth, but... [never] graduated into... high-income countries. ...[I]t could have been due to corruption, political instability, poor , or inadequate investment in ...This ...is ..."the middle-income trap." Since 1960, only 13 out of 101 middle-income economies... escape[d] it. ...China ...may follow... Japan['s]... lost decade of no growth in the 1990s. If, however, China can keep growing at 5 percent on average, and... the US continues... at... 1.5 percent... the Chinese... will overtake the US... by... 2030. China would not be as rich... for several more decades, but... more than a billion Chinese would enjoy the same living standards... However, ...China will need a new model of growth. ...5 percent ...seems overly optimistic ...275 percent ...debt to GDP ...as of 2022 points to ...painful ... ...And threats of make an export-oriented economy ...fragile.

Chinese citizens expect... government to take... large roles... and do not see interventions as infringements on liberty.

Extended skirmishes, export bans of semiconductors, and s are reinforcing China’s... course... to attain self-reliance.

COVID-19... in early 2020 China chose to save lives and forsake economic output... the West... swinging the other direction.

Its rising middle-income group and new generation of s place... demands on civil society and standards of living... a burgeoning emphasis on improving the softer metrics... a cleaner environment... ... . Its new model... slower... saner... growth—more orderly, regulated, and monitored.

China’s economy faces major challenges... Catch-up growth is... different from innovation-based growth.

There is... room for convergence. China’s productivity level is... only a fraction of the US... China’s share of labor force with a college degree is... smaller than... in South Africa and Brazil, and way below rich countries.

Entrepreneurs... balance... relationships with local officials... national policy directives, and... regulations...

Chinese state... power... [and unparalleled] instruments... can... steer, manage, and push the economy... any direction. ...Policy directives, rules, and regulations can be set with little political obstruction. The state can scrap old rules and make new ones overnight... granting or denying... approvals and licenses, or leveraging the to serve a... goal. ...Internal controls and competition curb corruption. ...[C]ivic society holds ...government ...accountable ...Social media ...embodies a two-way monitoring platform ...

Chinese households... make decisions on a collective... basis... a rich network of intergenerational relationships and duties... often... above... .