Daniel Kahneman

There is a deep gap between our thinking about statistics and our thinking about individual cases.

A rare event will be overweighted if it specifically attracts attention. [...] And when there is no overweighting, there will be neglect.

It is the of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.

Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.