disbelief is not an option. The results are not made up, nor are they statistical flukes. You have no choice… — Daniel Kahneman

There is no evidence that risk takers in the economic domain have an unusual appetite for gambles on high stakes; they are merely less aware of risks than more timid people are.

He's taking an inside view. He should forget about his own case and look for what happened in other cases.

It took Francis Galton several years to figure out that and regression are not two concepts – they are different perspectives on the same concept. The general rule is straightforward but has surprising consequences: whenever the correlation between two scores is imperfect, there will be regression to the mean.